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Typically, the National Football League's Head Coach of the Year trophy adheres to a straightforward pattern. It frequently functions as a kind of apology. Our apologies we underestimated your team in our preseason predictions.

Theoretically, it's a clear-cut trajectory: the skipper who oversaw the most dramatic improvement wins the award. In practice, it creates an yearly discussion about preseason outlooks and whether we're genuinely honoring superior coaching or simply the most shocking surprise.

However this year's field is profoundly unique. The group of contenders is remarkably strong. It has been the campaign of comebacks. The NFL has been messy, with reigning division winners falling away and recent underperformers improving in unison. During an ordinary season, a coach guiding the Denver Broncos to the summit of the AFC would make him the clear front-runner. Yet in such a wild and fun season, he's up against five other outstanding coaches.

This is how the hypothetical vote ought to shake out.

5) The Chicago Bears Coach, His Team, 11-5

Voters for Coach of the Year voters are fascinated by signal-callers. History shows this. A certain coach in 2017. Another in 2020. A third in 2022. If you fix a quarterback, you're halfway home.

Ben Johnson hasn't just fixed Caleb Williams; he's unleashed him. In the right ecosystem, Williams has been given the chance to demonstrate his otherworldly ability. From Week 9, the Bears sit at number four in offensive Expected Points Added per play. This isn't a hot streak – it's prolonged dominance. With Johnson, Williams has become more decisive, less careless, and has willingly surrendered to the scheme rather than freelancing. It is an attack designed solely in Johnson's image: a bully-ball ground attack, a consistent dose of play-action passes and a innovative passing attack that frees wide-open targets all over the field. The QB has thrived. And when clear throws haven't been available, he's been able to conjure big plays out of broken plays.

The coach arrived to the Bears with a specific offensive blueprint. Virtually every gamble – rebuilding the trenches, featuring the pass-catchers, transforming Williams into a rhythm passer – has succeeded. That's rare for a rookie head coach. And it's rarer yet for a coach who entered the building with the immense hype he did. For two straight offseasons, he was the most sought-after candidate on the head coaching carousel. However when it comes to hiring a leader, there are zero sure things. Remarkably, he has met the hype – and even exceeded them. He's demonstrated not only to be a offensive genius but the kind of leader that can breathe fresh energy into an franchise.

During a ordinary season, he would be the overwhelming choice. But this is not a normal campaign!

Where his case runs slightly unstuck is on defense. The Chicago defense presently rank in the bottom third in defensive efficiency. They are relying on turnovers, and turnovers are notoriously inconsistent. Defensive minds can stress creating turnovers, but nobody can ensure it. He is on the list because the offense is sustainable. He's ranked lower because variance is doing too much of the defense's heavy lifting. With a couple bounces of the ball, the Bears would be several victories worse off. It's been an exceptional turnaround, and the foundation is established for long-term success. But Johnson falls just short in this ranking.

4) The Jacksonville Jaguars Coach, His Team, 12-4

The Jaguars' coach is in a comparable spot to his counterpart. He's a fellow rookie leader who has orchestrated a swift turnaround. Over the stretch run of the year, he has his franchise quarterback playing the best overall football of his professional life. And he's also overseen the overhaul of a defensive unit that now ranks fifth in the league in Expected Points Added per play.

What's more notably, he has excelled at the leadership aspects, which wasn't a given after his early public appearances and some of his preseason decisions.

The coach walked into the Jaguars with an uncommonly inexperienced staff. In contrast to Johnson, who surrounded themselves with the perfect staff cocktail of new ideas and experience, Coen hired newbies. From the head coach himself to assistants to assistant coaches, the Jaguars are filled with first-timers. That type of setup is intriguing in theory, but often collapses in reality – with other teams are a cautionary tale – because everyone is learning a new job in real-time. But he has managed to bring everyone and everything into sync.

After an early strong start, there was a risk that the season would go off the rails. A mid-year setback caused the team wobbling once more. That's typically when leaders overcorrect. He did not. Instead, he streamlined the approach. The offense stopped chasing explosive plays and started seeking sustainable ones. The coach refocused the offense around his playmakers and the ground attack, and asked Lawrence to use his legs more often.

The results are clear. The Jaguars have won multiple games in a row and will be the AFC's number three playoff seed. He gets the tiniest deduction in the rankings because he inherited a skilled team, but he has proven he can get the most out of that talent.

3) The Seattle Seahawks Coach, Seattle Seahawks, Their Record

Every Coach of the Year case has a defining decision. For Mike Macdonald, it was his quarterback choice.

Parting ways from a incumbent, bringing in a different quarterback and partnering him with an innovative play-caller could have derailed the campaign in the early weeks. Instead, it shaped it. By the mid point of the season, the new QB was an MVP candidate. He has fallen away after that hot streak, slipping to 23rd in EPA per dropback over the second half of the season, putting him just a single place ahead of other QBs.

Still