Ten years following the UK entered into a hasty referendum that divided the nation and unleashed turmoil, a warning comes from across the Irish Sea: it might repeat.
Policymakers and citizens sleepwalked into Brexit and the same might transpire with a referendum on a united Ireland, sparking upheavals for which no one is ready.
That represents the warning from two prominent commentators from each side of the Irish border who have teamed up to analyse the advantages and disadvantages of Northern Ireland departing the UK to form a new state with the Republic of Ireland.
Governmental Institutions Unprepared
The author and columnist and The Northern Ireland editor, have determined that the government bodies in Ireland and Britain are extremely ill-prepared for a potentially contentious and transformative public vote.
"The lesson of Brexit has gone unabsorbed, which is that stuff can come out of the blue and can build support very quickly," the commentator said. "I would suggest that the governmental framework of our archipelago remains very unstable."
Released Volume Intends to Encourage Dialogue
The duo have examined the political, economic and societal reasons for any governmental shift in a publication, The Case For and Against Unification, released by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They aim to encourage dialogue on the issue with a tour of lectures that will take them to Westminster soon.
"What haunts everybody, or should haunt every person, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," commented the analyst.
"We must avoid a national vote on a binary, ambiguous question whose implications have not been clarified because then you end up with an extremely polarised community where those defeated are not reconciled to losing and the people who have won lack clarity exactly what it is that they have won."
Legal Framework
Under the Belfast Agreement, the Northern Ireland government minister should call a public vote on Irish unification if it appears likely that a most voters would support.
Sinn Féin and other nationalists argue such a time is approaching, and a non-profit named Ireland’s Future has built momentum, but both governments and unionists minimise the likelihood, leaving it unclear when or if there could be a national vote.
Insufficient Substantive Discussion
Ideological statements supporting and opposing unity has obscured the shortage of informed dialogue, noted the journalist.
"Individuals are often for or against the concept but the detailed consideration which might go beyond that to make it possible has largely not occurred. A great deal has occurred in universities but very few elected officials or advocates want to engage even with the essentials. For instance, what sort of state would you want? Unitary? Federal?"
Publication's Method
In the volume, none of the commentators endorses unity or the existing arrangement. They writes two essays that aim for impartiality in presenting the case for a united Ireland and the argument opposing it, assembling financial and social data, historical precedents and constitutional models.
Debates encompass national emblems, levies, healthcare systems, pensions, public liabilities and the risk of unionist unrest. The goal is to educate and provoke discussion.
"There's huge interest in the subject but there hasn't quite been a dialogue," commented the writer. "Dialogue indicates an acceptance of the concept that there may exist good arguments on each side."
Simultaneous Plebiscites
A referendum in Northern Ireland would simultaneously prompt one in the Republic of Ireland, where citizens claim they support unification but oppose increased taxation or adopting a alternative symbol to acknowledge pro-UK communities' British identity.
"Authorities in Dublin must work out what the offer from nationalist groups is other than just stating: 'We desire a united Ireland and we love you'," stated O’Toole.
Likelihood of Public Vote
McBride believes a national vote in his era is probable and that it may take place suddenly. "You could have just a reckless or a ill-advised or a incompetent government minister who says: 'We should proceed and settle the matter.'"
Both nationalists and unionists have plausible, justified arguments, he said. "One side will win in this matter and somebody will eventually be defeated but each side has got something to gain from the other's viewpoints."
Appeal for Broader Debate
Westminster should join the discussion, said O’Toole. "This involves the United Kingdom. It's a UK matter just as much as it is an Irish matter."
